Study: Section of San Andreas Fault in California Ready for Major Earthquake

Scientists have been researching methods to predict earthquakes by identifying precursors. A recent study, led by Luca Malagnini, director of research at the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Italy, suggests that a major earthquake could hit California in the next two years. The study focused on the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault and revealed that earthquakes occur approximately every 22 years in this area. The most recent earthquake in 2004 followed previous magnitude-6.7, 6.0, and 6.5 earthquakes in 1983, 1966, and 1934, respectively.

According to the study published in *Live Science*, the research team concluded that Parkfield is approaching the end of its silent period and an earthquake is imminent. Scientists have been closely monitoring the San Andreas fault line as a potential source of a significant earthquake, often referred to as the “Big One.” This fault line separates the Pacific and North American tectonic plates. While the fault line is locked in the south of Parkfield, it moves freely in the north, with the plates sliding against one another at a rate of 1.4 inches (3.6 centimeters) per year.

Parkfield serves as a transitional zone between these two plates. Researchers have been striving for years to develop a method of earthquake prediction by identifying precursors such as rock strain or changes in permeability beneath the surface. Malagnini and his team are hoping to discover such clues in Parkfield, which is known for its recurring earthquakes. Although Parkfield has experienced instances when earthquakes did not occur, this study warns of the possibility of a powerful quake due to the absence of nearby quakes altering the stresses in the region.

The seismic event on September 28, 2004, with an epicenter in the town of Parkfield, had an impact across a 350-mile (563-km) radius, from Orange County to Sacramento, and was followed by approximately 150 aftershocks.