Battle Royale in Rajasthan: 5 Factors Shaping BJP’s Attempt for a Third Consecutive Victory

Political temperature has begun to soar in the desert state with voting for 12 seats scheduled to be held in Phase 1 of the Lok Sabha election. The latest opinion polls by C-Voter and CNX predict that the BJP will sweep the state again in 2024, while Polstrat gives 19 seats to the party.

The grand old party, however, did much better than expected in the assembly polls, trailing by just two percentage points in terms of vote share. The BJP hopes to carry forward the momentum of the assembly polls into the general elections this year.

Jats are an influential community, accounting for around 12% of the population. In 2019, 85% of Jats voted for the NDA, up from 38% in 2014, due to the alliance with the RLP and the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

However, this support was reduced to 42% in the 2023 assembly elections. Jats and Rajputs share a traditional rivalry in the state.

The Congress hopes that the farmers’ unrest and alliance with Beniwal could pull Jats towards the party, potentially denting the BJP’s votes. Over 60% of the upper castes (including Brahmins and Rajputs) backed the BJP in the last two Lok Sabha polls in the state.

Although Rupala has withdrawn his remarks and publicly apologized to the community, the anger persists. Rajputs in Rajasthan demand that the BJP pull him from the fray in Rajkot.

Rajput community organizations have linked the statement to denigrating their valor and sacrifices for the country. Parallelly, independent candidate Ravindra Singh Bhati’s rise in Barmer is being described as a “revolt of the Rajputs”.

Scheduled Tribes account for 13% of Rajasthan’s population. Though traditionally supporters of the Congress, the BJP gained a lead in the community in 2019, with 58% backing the saffron party.

However, in the 2023 assembly polls, 51% backed the Congress and only 29% supported the BJP. The Congress is facing rebellion in Banswara.

Leaders like Rahul Kaswan and Prahlad Gunjal, who rebelled against the party’s decision to deny them tickets from Churu and Kota, respectively, have joined the Congress. With Sachin Pilot back in the thick of things, Gujjar votes in central (Jaipur) and eastern Rajasthan are key to the party’s revival.

In last year’s state polls, 43% of Gujjars backed the BJP, while 39% supported the Congress. The party fought well in 2023 and saved itself from suffering a rout.

Naturally, it hopes to make a mark this time around. However, the fact that key figures like Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot are not contesting the elections this year may not help the party’s cause.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator.)