2024 Lok Sabha Elections: BJP Predicted to Win 350 Seats Independently, 5 in Tamil Nadu

Surjit Bhalla, an economist and author of the book ‘How We Vote’, recently spoke to NDTV about his predictions for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in India. Bhalla believes that the BJP may secure 330 to 350 seats based on statistical possibilities, suggesting a potential wave election. However, he also noted that the election may not necessarily result in a wave for any specific party.

In contrast, Bhalla’s analysis for the Opposition Congress party is less optimistic. He predicted that the party may secure 44 seats, which is 2% less than what it won in the 2014 election. He attributed this prediction to the leadership and economic factors, stating that both favor the BJP.

According to him, the Opposition’s lack of a mass-appeal leader contributes to the lack of competition. Bhalla also made surprising predictions for the BJP’s success in traditionally weak regions such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala, suggesting that the party may gain seats in these areas. He attributed this possibility to the improvement in people’s living conditions, emphasizing the importance of the economy in influencing voters’ decisions.

Moreover, Bhalla criticized the reliability of data from the think tank Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) and accused the Opposition of selectively using this data to target the BJP during the election season. He emphasized the need for a more accurate understanding of economic and social indicators to inform political discussions. The Lok Sabha elections are set to take place in multiple phases, with votes being counted on June 4th.

Bhalla’s insights shed light on the potential outcomes of the elections and the various factors at play in shaping voter preferences.