Lok Sabha Elections: Examining Low Voter Turnout in Initial Two Phases

The recent elections in India saw varying voter turnouts across different states and Union Territories. Chhattisgarh and Karnataka were the only ones to record an increase in polling, while states in the Hindi heartland like Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan, as well as historically high-turnout states like West Bengal and Kerala experienced lower voter turnouts. Data from 1951-52 to 2019 shows that in 16 out of 17 Lok Sabha elections, voter turnout either declined or increased.

Of the 10 times the turnout increased, the incumbent lost four times and won six times, indicating a 60% repetition rate. On the other hand, of the six times the turnout decreased, the incumbent lost four times and won twice, indicating a 33% repetition rate. The data also suggests that 80% of the time the BJP has formed governments, it has been following an increased polling percentage, indicating the significance of higher voter turnout for the BJP.

The recent lower turnout in Phase 1 of the elections led the BJP to take a proactive approach in addressing voter enthusiasm, a move that was publicly acknowledged by the party. Similar assessments might have been undertaken by other parties without public disclosure. Disillusionment among supporters in Bihar may stem from Nitish Kumar’s fluctuating alliances and controversial statements, while in Uttar Pradesh, the shift of Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtriya Lok Dal from the INDIA bloc to the National Democratic Alliance lacks support from the community.

Confusion in Maharashtra about the real identities of Shiv Sena and NCP has also led to discontent among some BJP supporters. In conclusion, analyzing voter turnout involves considering multiple factors, and its impact on actual election results is yet to be seen.