US Election 2024: US Presidential Polls “Nostradamus” Makes 2024 Prediction

The methodology developed by Mr. Lichtman has consistently proven effective. It involves a series of true or false questions, assessing factors such as economic performance, social stability, and incumbent charisma. Based on historical data since Abraham Lincoln’s era, Mr. Lichtman has created a predictive model, which he claims surpasses traditional methods used by psephologists.

Mr. Lichtman has established a set of 13 keys to the White House, which have accurately predicted election outcomes since 1984. According to this model, if six or more of the 13 keys go against the White House party (the incumbent), they are predicted to lose the election. Conversely, if fewer than six keys go against them, they are predicted to win.

Currently, Mr. Lichtman believes that the odds are in favor of Joe Biden, with just two keys pointing against him. Biden is expected to face Donald Trump for the 2024 US Presidential elections, with Trump being increasingly likely to be the Republican party’s candidate. Mr. Lichtman sees formidable odds for Trump, attributing Biden’s advantages of incumbency and a relatively uncontested primary as significant factors.

While early polls show some preference for Trump’s economic approach over Biden’s, Mr. Lichtman cautions against putting too much weight on these polls. He asserts that early polls lack predictive value and can often be misleading, citing past instances where his predictions differed from poll outcomes. Despite Mr. Lichtman’s successful track record in predicting election results, there have been cases where the final outcome did not align with his forecast, such as Al Gore’s victory prediction, which was overshadowed by the controversial election outcome.