Iran’s Warning to Israel amid Rising Nuclear Tensions

Kamal Kharrazi, the adviser, hinted at a potential shift in Iran’s nuclear doctrine if the country’s existence is perceived to be under threat by Israel. He stated that while Iran currently has no intention to build a nuclear bomb, a threat to its existence would leave it with “no choice but to change [its] military doctrine.” Tensions arose between Iran and Israel after Iran launched a barrage of explosive drones and missiles targeting Israeli territory in response to the bombing of its embassy in Syria’s capital, Damascus, in April.

Despite Ayatollah Khamenei’s previous fatwa against nuclear weapons development, Iran’s then-intelligence minister suggested in 2021 that external pressures, particularly from Western nations, could prompt a reassessment of Iran’s nuclear posture. Kharrazi added that in the event of an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities by Israel, its deterrence would change. Efforts to engage with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have met with mixed results.

While discussions between Iran’s nuclear officials and IAEA representatives have been described as positive and productive, tangible progress remains elusive. Rafael Grossi, the head of the IAEA, expressed frustration over Iran’s alleged lack of cooperation, emphasizing the urgency for concrete measures to address concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear activities. Last year, Iran made commitments to assist in investigating uranium particles found at undeclared sites and reinstall monitoring equipment.

Grossi highlighted the dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs, stating, “We are almost at an impasse and this needs to be changed.” During discussions between Grossi and Iranian officials, both sides recognized the 2023 agreement as a potential framework for cooperation, but implementation has been slow. Concerns were also raised about external interference, particularly from Israel, which is viewed by Iran as a hostile actor.