India’s Delicate Situation Post Bangladesh Turmoil and Sheikh Hasina’s Ouster

In Sheikh Hasina, India had a strong friend in a hostile neighbourhood. Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security last night to discuss the Bangladesh situation that has immense strategic ramifications for New Delhi. The Centre is yet to publicly state how it plans to navigate this neighbourhood crisis and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar briefed MPs at an all-party meeting today. In its response to the Bangladesh situation, London has only called for a UN-led probe but has not touched upon the asylum issue.

The question then is will Ms Hasina then stay in India or seek another destination. India now faces a diplomatic dilemma and does not want to be seen as overtly backing the ousted leader because that may complicate its relationship with the new dispensation in Bangladesh. Also important is the history of Sheikh Hasina’s relationship with India. Long before she became Prime Minister, the Indira Gandhi government had given her refuge after her whole family, including father Mujibur Rahaman, was assassinated during the 1975 unrest in Bangladesh.

So abandoning her at this point will also not be an easy decision, considering her equations with Delhi. From road and rail connectivity to border management to defence cooperation, the ties between India and Bangladesh strengthened during this time. When protests against Ms Hasina gathered steam in Bangladesh, India’s response was that it is an “internal matter”. With the 76-year-old leader now ousted, India must now build bridges with the new Dhaka dispensation.

Bangladesh Army chief Waker-uz-Zaman yesterday said an interim government will be formed to run the affairs of the country. It is not clear what role the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami, who backed the protests in Bangladesh, will play in the new government. Both these parties are no friends of India. The term of BNP chief Khaleda Zia was a rocky phase in Delhi-Dhaka ties.

Khaleda Zia, set to be freed from prison after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, has in the past used her anti-India stance as an election plank and pressed that New Delhi has been interfering in Bangladesh’s internal politics. The Jamaat on the other hand has close links with Pakistan, and India would be closely watching the developments in Dhaka. India and Bangladesh share a 4,096-km border that is very porous. Influx of Bangladesh refugees has been a key issue in India, especially in the Northeast and West Bengal.

Following yesterday’s developments in Bangladesh, the Border Security Force (BSF) has issued a high alert across the international border. Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma, leader of Tripura’s Tipra Motha, has said that he had spoken to Union Home Minister Amit Shah and has been assured that no infiltration would be allowed. With Bangladesh slipping out of the control of Awami League, India is watching who takes over. This is not good news for India’s strategic outlook in the region.

The past few years have seen unrest in India’s neighbourhood, whether it is Sri Lanka or Myanmar or Afghanistan and now Bangladesh. In Afghanistan, the Taliban’s return scuttled India’s strong ties with the earlier government. Amid this, the boost in diplomatic relations with Dhaka was a silver lining, but that changed yesterday and India must now return to the drawing board to navigate this new crisis.