Study Links Wayanad Landslide to 10% Increased Rainfall from Climate Change

A study has found that 59 percent of total landslides in Kerala have occurred in plantation areas. This finding comes with a warning from researchers in India, Sweden, the US, and the UK, who predict that such events will become more common as the climate continues to warm.

The researchers, part of the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, analyzed climate models to measure the impact of human-caused climate change on the region. According to their findings, the intensity of rainfall in the area has increased by 10 percent due to climate change.

Furthermore, the models predict a potential four percent increase in rainfall intensity with a rise of two degrees Celsius in the global temperature compared to the 1850-1900 average. However, the scientists note a “high level of uncertainty” in the model results due to the study’s small and mountainous area, which presents complex rainfall-climate dynamics.

They emphasize the atmosphere’s capacity to hold moisture, which increases by about 7 percent for every one-degree Celsius rise in global temperature. The Earth’s global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.3 degrees Celsius due to rapidly rising greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily carbon dioxide and methane, leading to worsening extreme weather events worldwide, such as droughts, heatwaves, and floods.

The study also highlights the potential relationship between land cover, land use changes, and landslide risk in Wayanad, Kerala. Factors like quarrying for building materials and a 62 percent reduction in forest cover may have increased the slopes’ susceptibility to landslides during heavy rainfall.

The director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT) explained that the warming of the Arabian Sea has led to the formation of deep cloud systems, resulting in extremely heavy rainfall and increasing the risk of landslides in Kerala. Notably, a landslide atlas released by ISRO’s National Remote Sensing Centre revealed that 10 out of the top 30 landslide-prone districts in India are in Kerala, with Wayanad ranked at the 13th spot.

Another study published in 2021 identified all landslide hotspots in Kerala to be in the Western Ghats region, concentrated in specific districts. A separate study in 2022 found a significant depletion of forest cover in Wayanad, with a 62 percent decrease between 1950 and 2018, and a corresponding 1,800 percent rise in plantation cover.