2024 US Election: US Presidential Polls ‘Nostradamus’ Makes 2024 Prediction

Mr. Lichtman’s methodology has proven effective over time. The keys, which consist of true or false questions, evaluate various factors such as economic performance, social stability, and incumbent charisma. By carefully analyzing historical data since Abraham Lincoln’s era, Mr. Lichtman has developed a predictive model that goes beyond the traditional methods used by traditional psephologists.

According to Mr. Lichtman, he has a model for 13 keys to the White House that has been correct since 1984, spanning 10 elections in a row. The model predicts that if six or more of the 13 keys go against the White House party (incumbent), they are predicted to lose, and if fewer than six, they are predicted to win. Currently, Joe Biden is down by just two keys, leading Mr. Lichtman to believe that it would take a lot for him to lose the election.

Biden is expected to face a challenge from Donald Trump for a second time, as Trump is becoming increasingly likely to be the Republican party’s candidate for the 2024 US Presidential elections scheduled for November. With Biden benefiting from the advantages of incumbency and facing a relatively uncontested primary, Mr. Lichtman sees formidable odds for his challenger. During a recent three-day poll, 41% of participants favored Trump’s economic approach over Biden’s, while 34% favored Biden’s.

However, Mr. Lichtman cautioned that early polls should be taken with a grain of salt, as they provide momentary snapshots and have zero predictive value. He emphasized the importance of looking at the big picture as gauged by the keys, rather than getting caught up in polls and pundits. Despite forecasting a victory for Gore, the controversial outcome cast a shadow over Mr. Lichtman’s prediction.

His track record includes correctly predicting crucial poll contests in the US, from Ronald Reagan’s re-election triumph amid economic recession to Bill Clinton’s victory against George HW Bush. However, he warns against relying too heavily on early polls, citing examples from past elections where the eventual outcome differed significantly from early polling results.