2024 US Election: US Presidential Polls Gets Prediction from ‘Nostradamus’

Mr. Lichtman’s methodology has been consistently proven effective over time. It involves a series of true or false questions, known as keys, that evaluate factors such as economic performance, social stability, and incumbent charisma.

His predictive model, based on meticulous analysis of historical data dating back to the era of Abraham Lincoln, surpasses the conventional methods utilized by traditional psephologists. According to Mr. Lichtman, he has formulated a model based on 13 keys to the White House, which has accurately predicted the outcomes of 10 consecutive elections since 1984.

He stated that if six or more of these 13 keys go against the White House party (the incumbent), they are predicted to lose, whereas fewer than six indicate a prediction of victory. Presently, Biden is down by just two keys, making it unlikely for him to lose the election.

Biden is anticipated to face a challenge from Donald Trump for a second time in the 2024 US Presidential elections. Mr. Lichtman foresees that Biden, as the incumbent, holds a strong position against his potential challenger, citing historical instances where incumbents prevailed despite unfavorable circumstances.

Even though early polls suggested a preference for Trump’s economic approach over Biden’s, Mr. Lichtman cautioned against relying on early polls for predictions. He emphasized that they provide momentary snapshots and have little predictive value, drawing attention to past instances where early polls did not accurately predict election outcomes.

Mr. Lichtman highlighted his previous successful predictions of poll contests in the US, while also acknowledging instances where controversial outcomes cast a shadow over his forecasts. He emphasized the importance of looking at the big picture as gauged by the keys, rather than solely relying on polls and pundits.