Mumbai Could Lose More Than 10% of Land by 2040 Because of Sea Level Rise: Study

The study conducted by Bengaluru-based think tank Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP) examined the impact of rising sea levels on 15 Indian coastal cities and towns. It found that up to 5% of land in Kochi, Mangalore, Visakhapatnam, Udupi, and Puri may be submerged as a result of sea level rise. Mumbai experienced the highest rise in sea levels at 4.440 cm, followed by Haldia, Visakhapatnam, Kochi, Paradip, and Chennai from 1987 to 2021. The study projected that sea levels will continue to rise until the end of the century in all 15 cities and towns, with the highest rise predicted for Mumbai.

Under the shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios, sea levels are expected to rise by 76.2 cm in Mumbai by 2100, with significant rises also projected for Panaji, Udupi, Mangalore, Kozhikode, Kochi, Thiruvananthapuram, and Kanyakumari. The study also indicated that by 2040, more than 10% of the land in Mumbai, Yanam, and Thoothukudi; 5-10% in Panaji and Chennai; and 1-5% in Kochi, Mangaluru, Visakhapatnam, Haldia, Udupi, Paradip, and Puri could be submerged due to rising sea levels. In 2100, the land submergence is projected to be higher in Mangalore, Haldia, Paradip, Thoothukudi, and Yanam than in Mumbai and Chennai, especially under the high-emission scenario. The study highlighted that key sectors such as water, agriculture, forest and biodiversity, and health will be impacted, and the beaches, backwaters, and mangrove forests are particularly at risk, affecting biodiversity and tourism.